SpaceX has been assigned a fair value of $780 billion by Morningstar, less than half the roughly $1.8 trillion valuation the company is targeting in its upcoming initial public offering, according to newly published analyst coverage and recent IPO filings.
Morningstar's initiation report, released this week, pegs SpaceX's standalone fair value at about $780 billion based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes slower growth and more execution risk than the company and its bankers are projecting.
The research firm said its estimate sits roughly 48% below SpaceX's current private-market valuation and well below the IPO goal, underscoring a wide gap between independent analysis and the company's ambitions, according to Yahoo Finance.
The report comes just days before the formal IPO roadshow, increasing scrutiny on SpaceX's pitch to public investors.
SpaceX is currently marketing an IPO that seeks a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion, after earlier internal discussions about a figure above $2 trillion, according to people familiar with the plans.
The new target, trimmed following talks with advisers and potential investors, would still make the share sale one of the largest in history, surpassing the market debuts of companies such as Saudi Aramco.
Formal marketing to institutional investors is expected to begin in early June, with pricing potentially as soon as mid-June, subject to market conditions, Business Standard reported.
Morningstar's valuation reflects uncertainty around the long-term profitability of SpaceX's launch business and its global satellite internet network, Starlink, even as both units are growing quickly.
Analysts highlighted high capital expenditure needs, regulatory risks, and competitive pressure in satellite communications as key reasons for applying more conservative assumptions than those embedded in the IPO target.
They also noted that new ventures, including artificial intelligence infrastructure and potential space-based data services, are difficult to model at the scale implied by a $1.8 trillion valuation.
The bearish $780 billion figure contrasts sharply with SpaceX's recent private funding activity, in which secondary share sales have valued the company at more than $1.5 trillion, according to prior transaction disclosures.
In a secondary sale late last year, SpaceX priced shares at about $421, nearly double the levels from a mid-2020s round, reflecting strong demand from existing shareholders and new institutional buyers.
The IPO will give public markets their first chance to set a trading price for one of the most closely watched companies in global capital markets, and the gap between Morningstar's estimate and the company's goal is expected to be a central focus of investor discussions in the coming weeks, according to Bloomberg.
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