Brexit will Force Ireland to Quit EU, Said a Prominent Hedge Fund Manager
A renowned hedge fund manager, Martin Hughes, founder of Toscafund warned that United Kingdom withdrawal from European Union will also force Ireland to quit. Analyst also have fear that it will trigger economic recession in the UK.
One of the largest hedge funds in UK, Toscafund was founded in 2000 by Martin Hughes. As for now the firm has managed in total over $4 billion (£3 billion) assets, including global equity financials, commercial property, UK debt and activist approach. Toscafund served clients ranging from pension funds, international institutional funds, private family offices and high net worth individuals.
According to Irish Times, Toscafund has recently released a paper saying the UK has "nothing to fear" from a Brexit after its referendum on the issue this year. The firm also predicted that Ireland will also be forced to quit the EU, when UK decided to exit from European Union. Particularly, if Brussels imposes any trade restrictions on the UK to prevent other country to exit the union as well.
Brexit was first issued in 1970's, when European Union was still a European Economic Community (EEC), a precursor to the union. United Kingdom joined the EEC in January 1973 under the Conservative government of Edward Heath, who sat in the Prime Minister office until 1974. However, opposition, Labor Party challenged the decision and used the issue to win the 1974 general election and Harold Wilson became the prime minister.
In 1975, the referendum was held to ask electorates whether UK should remain in the EEC. On June 5, the referendum resulted a 67.2% said to stay in the EEC, and only 32.8% wanted to quit.
When Conversative party under David Cameron won the 2015 general election, it introduced the European Union Referendum Act 2015. The act was designed to make a provision for a referendum before the end of 2017 to decide membership of UK in the EU.
Financial columnist Jeremy Warner wrote in Daily Telegraph, "A vote to leave the European Union would trigger an immediate recession." He also wrote that leaving the EU will, "adversely affect UK output to the tune of more than 1% a year for the next decade; put millions of jobs at risk; provoke a balance of payments crisis with sterling plunging 20% or more; raise inflation; erode real incomes and pole axe Britain's credit rating."
In term of military and economic cooperation, French columnist at Le Monde Jean-Pierre Stroobants told BBC, "French people understand that if the UK were to leave it wouldn't be good for Europe, certainly not in military and economic matters."
Martin Hudges has warned that UK's withdrawal from EU will force Ireland to quit as well. Analysts also suggested a recession may hit the UK. Brexit may also damage the economic and military matters in the Europe.