Contrary to earlier bullish predictions for 2016, several Wall Street strategists have started lowering their forecasts on S&P 500 stocks. The Chinese economy slowdown, volatile oil prices and interest rates are the major reasons for drop in forecast. The gap between highest and lowest forecast has been widening.
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The Dutch banking major ING Groep's revenues for the fourth quarter were above the analysts' forecasts. ING's exposure to the oil companies is putting pressure on its stock, which suffered 20 percent drop. However, ING is also receiving indirect benefits from lower oil prices.
The lower oil price for about 19 months is benefiting the consumers, but creating a lot of problems for the global governments and business firms. Many banks and the US government forecast oil price above $40 a barrel this year. The oil price fell to below $30 during the past 19 months from $107 a barrel.
The latest forecast indicates 50 percent rebound in oil prices by the end of 2016. The oil price could be higher by $15 per barrel this year taking the New York crude to $46 a barrel by fourth quarter and Brent to $48 during the same period. The drop in US shale output is likely to drive oil price up in the second half of 2016.
Citigroup holds view that it's too early to come to a conclusion about the state of the world's largest economy. It advises investors not to offload stocks over China. Citigroup in its latest research reports terms the present uncertainty and sluggishness in the Chinese economy and markets as a 'correction.'
Introduction of risk based regulation centering Basel III accord has pushed up costs of fund. As an aftermath, the January 20 auction of the UK sovereign bonds has witnessed the lowest demand in nearly seven years. Ahead of rising concerns over the increasing challenges in the UK gilt market, many of the world’s biggest banks are shrinking their bond-trading activities. However, concerns of the investors and dealers have been communicated to the regulators concerned through a meeting held on Tuesday.
A bitcoin startup Digital Asset Holdings has received funding from major banks. It will work closely with investors on research and commercialization of bitcoin technology applications. Digital Asset said that it has raised over $50 million funding from 13 investors. The list of investors includes JPMorgan Chase & Com, Citigroup Inc, BNP Paribas SA, CME Group Inc and Accenture Plc.
The falling oil price below $30 per barrel is impacting Canadian economy, which mostly depends upon commodities. Along with oil price, Canadian currency Loonie too declined against the US dollar. The weaker Loonie has eroded the purchasing power of Canada and is making imports costlier. Canada imports vegetables from the US. The surging US dollar made vegetables prices expensive by three folds for Canadian consumers.
The Wall Street took a second plunge on Wednesday in the first two weeks of 2016 after trading failed to pickup after Tuesday. This sent ripples to global markets especially Asian markets which all closed sharply lower predicating on growing concern for China's slow growth, stability of its currency, and slump in oil prices.
The weakening business confidence coupled with global economic challenges is impacting the UK manufacturing sector in more negative way. Despite odds forecast for 2016, majority of manufacturing firms in the UK are going ahead with their investment plan for technology and innovation. About 44 percent of UK companies participated in a survey expressed their concerns about challenging 2016 year.
US Treasuries dropped for the first time in seven days as China concerns eased. The unexpected depreciation of Yuan by China's central bank sent shock waves across the global markets. This triggered selloff in equities and forced investors towards safe havens such as treasuries and gold.
Saudi Aramco may tap capital market very shortly. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is considering a major restructuring plan for the world's biggest oil producing company in the wake of lower oil prices. The Saudi government may also sell some of the stake in Aramco.
DH Capital, an investment banking firm serving companies in the Internet infrastructure, communications and SaaS sectors, is pleased to announce that it served as exclusive financial advisor to Clear Measures, a business analytics and database management specialist, on its sale to Data Intensity, the industry leader in application management and cloud services for Oracle technologies and applications.
BNP Paribas has asked at least three banks to help it clear certain energy transactions in U.S. dollars next year to make sure it can keep its energy trade finance division operating after a ban imposed for violating U.S. sanctions, sources said.
A group of 12 global banks are working together to set up a one-stop bond shop for buyers and sellers of corporate bonds, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
