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Growth in U.S. employment could make Fed hike interest rate

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October 6
3:15 AM 2015

American employers increased jobs at a quick pace last September, a signal that the labor market is close to full strength.   This trend could possibly persuade the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at one of its two remaining meetings this year, according to the Business Insider.

The monthly report employment from the Labor Department that was due on Friday at 8:30 am EDT shows the U.S. economy is improving enough to pull the jobless rate lower in the coming months.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predict U.S. payrolls outside of farming rose by 203,000 last month, rebounding back from softer job growth in August despite worries of a global economic slowdown led by China sapping America's strength.

"The U.S. economy is alive and kicking," said Phil Lachowycz, an economist at Fathom Consulting in London.

The unemployment rate was expected to keep steady at 5.1% in September due to some workers who left their jobs in harder times were expected to return to their labor force.  However, economists maximize the economy currently only needs an additional workforce of about 100,000 a month to keep up with the growth in population.  This is vital because a job creation above that level will push the jobless rate lower over time and raise the risk of swelling inflation.

The frail job growth surprised Wall Street and U.S. stocks sold off while the dollar also weakened and yields for government bonds fell.  The bets on interest rate futures showed investors a 30% chance of a Federal rate increase in December, down from just 50% before the release of job report, as reported by the Globe and Mail.

Paul Ryan, a top Republican lawmaker in the House of Representatives, said the weak turn in the economy should be a wake-up call for Washington to reform the national economy with new tax laws, free trade agreements and policies to get people off welfare.

"This recovery continues to disappoint, but we can't accept it as the new normal," Ryan said.

As the economy continues to get better, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Thursday that he sees the central bank raise short-term interest rates this year, maybe as early as this month.  He added that the Fed are not in need of much new economic data before moving, saying that the decision to hold off on rates hike at the central bank's September meeting was "a very close call.", Business News reported.

The Fed has two more policy meetings this year scheduled on Oct.27-28 and Dec. 15-16.  Some analysts think that it is unlikely for central bankers to start lifting the interest rate for short-term.

It means that Fed will not allow jobless rate do below its long-term natural rate for a long period of time before moving to reel in the rising economy through higher rates.

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