A top Apple analyst warned that Apple Vision Pro, which immediately sold out after preorders opened Friday, could face a downturn in demand.

Despite the rapid sell-out, top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities claimed that the extended shipping times remaining unchanged 48 hours after the preorders started raises a "major concern," CNBC reported.

In a blog post, Kuo wrote that shipping times for all Vision Pro models jumped to five to seven weeks in hours and estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 units over the weekend. 

Apple Vision Pro Demand Faces Risk of Decline

However, Kuo noted that the "demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders." He said popular iPhone models also experienced a sell-out quickly upon preorder, and shipping times rose to several weeks within hours.

But in contrast to the usual trend observed with iPhones, in which shipping times keep increasing after the initial sell-out, the Vision Pro's unchanged shipping times could signify a different pattern in consumer interest.

"Unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open, indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial [sell]-out," Kuo noted.

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Can Apple Vision Pro Sustain Demand?

While shipping 500,000 Apple Vision Pro units in total this year should not be challenging for the company, Kuo highlighted the importance of closely monitoring demand in various markets and staying attuned to application updates to gauge shifts in consumer interest. 

Addressing the unique market positioning of the Vision Pro, Kuo noted that it remains a niche product with its appeal to a relatively small percentage of Apple's massive user base, emphasizing that scrutiny of demand dynamics will be crucial. 

"The immediate sold-out when preorders opened confirms earlier predictions. However, the inability to sustain a steady increase in preorder demand is a major concern and also confirms earlier concerns about whether the intensity of demand can be sustained," Kuo said.

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analysts forecasted that Apple might ship around 300,000 to 400,000 units of its virtual reality headset in 2024, "with further upside depending on initial sell-through feedback."

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