Surplus in China's Trade As December Export Shows Increase

January 13
5:13 AM 2016

China's General Administration of Customs on Wednesday announced the nation's trade data. China shows a trade surplus in 2015 as export raise 2.3% from the previous month and less import. The positive result in the report has been able to lift currency and stock market.

According to Reuters, Chinese export sharply outperformed exports from neighboring countries such as Taiwan and South Korea, analysts noted. Import in December fell 7.6%, recording a 14 consecutive month of reduction, but the declining of import is not as sharp as predicted. One possible reasons are factories in China stocking up materials as the global commodity prices continue to fall, such as crude oil, iron ore and copper and others.

Some analysts told Bloomberg that the data shows economic recovery of China is expected to happen soon. "Despite market turmoil, the growth recovery is on track thanks to previous easing measures taking effect," said Daili Wang, economist at Roubini Global Economics LLC. but he said, "The recovery is still fragile."

Ding Shuang, chief China economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong said, "This could be the beginning of an improvement in China's trade data." He also added, "When the exchange rate starts to move it usually takes about three to six months for trade data to respond. Last August was the beginning, so it makes sense for the trade data to respond after three to four months."

The positive report has lifted MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.8 percent and strengthening yuan in Hong Kong's offshore market, where it was headed for the biggest five-day advance on record. Bloomberg also reported that Australian dollar, Chinese stocks and S&P 500 Index futures climbed after the report.

The increasing export has booked a $60.09 billion trade surplus for China in December, adding annual trade profit to more $594.5 billion. However some strategic analysts have main concern of overlooking the current data, because there might be changes. Derek Scissors, resident scholar at American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC on Wednesday, "There's a lot of invoicing that changes in December as companies clean up their books. I just think you don't want to over interpret December numbers."

China will announce key full-year gross domestic product (GDP) data next week. Preliminary data from China's General Administration of Customs might have indicated a positive result. China's government targeted the economy to grow at around 7% in 2015. A modest target as the country's economy is experiencing slowdown due to weak demand and industrial overcapacity in the second-largest economy of the world.

A trade surplus for China's economy have given a breeze of hope in the world economic slowdown throughout 2015, as market reacted positively to the report.

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