Olive oil prices continue their upward trajectory, pushing consumers to brace for further hikes, with industry experts forecasting a climb to over £16 per liter ($21/liter) for extra virgin oil variants. The Guardian reported that this surge is due to a drop in global production, the lowest levels witnessed in more than a decade.

One factor recorded is the reduced output in countries like Greece, Morocco, and Turkey, which is partly due to the natural fluctuations in olive growth patterns. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy are facing challenges from severe weather conditions exacerbated by the climate crisis. 

Despite these difficulties, there are slight signs of improvement in olive oil production in these countries.

As of now, data from the International Olive Council, global production is anticipated to hover around 2.3 million tonnes this year, a decline from the 2.5 million tonnes recorded in the previous challenging harvest and notably lower than the 3.4 million tonnes in 2022. 

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Expected Olive Oil Prices

Insiders predict that mass-market branded extra virgin olive oil will surpass the £16 ($21) mark next month, following an earlier uptick to approximately £14 ($18). Premium brands like Odysea and Belazu already command prices exceeding £18 ($23) per liter, while Napolina approaches the £15 ($20) mark and Filippo Berio stands just above £13 in some outlets.

Currently, recent statistics from the Office for National Statistics reveal a staggering 39% surge in the average price of a liter bottle of olive oil in the year leading up to March, eclipsing £8 ($9). 

While hopes linger for a production boost in Italy and Spain with the onset of more favorable weather conditions, Greece anticipates a production dip of up to 60%, coupled with a more than 50% reduction in Turkey, as both nations recover from lower harvests in 2023.

Looking ahead, Associazione Granaria di Milano is drawing attention to the pressure faced by bottlers as they struggle to replenish their reduced stocks of olive oil. This difficulty in restocking is contributing to an increase in wholesale prices. Wholesalers may also take advantage of the scarcity of olive oil as summer progresses, potentially manipulating the situation to control prices in their favor.

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