Best Year-Ender: What Are The Sectors That Will Surely Make Money On 2017?
Metals, oil & gas and chemicals stocks stole the thunder in calendar year 2016 while IT, pharma and real estate ended up being laggards.
The index representing the metals & mining sector rose by 34 per cent while that for oil & gas sector surged 23 per cent as of data collated on December 23, 2016. The BSE Capital Goods index slipped 5.4 per cent while S&P BSE Consumer Durables index shed nearly 10 per cent.
The BSE Healthcare index was the biggest casualty of the year 2016, down over 14 per cent, followed by the BSE IT index, which plunged a little over 10 per cent while the BSE Realty index slipped nearly 8 per cent in the same period.
Analyst outlook for calendar 2017 is mostly positive, but the leaders of 2016 might not retain their leadership positions in the forthcoming year, analysts said. Hence, a shift in portfolio is required.
Sectors such as IT, infrastructure and realty - which were under pressure this past year - should gain momentum in 2017, as a lot of negative sentiment with respect to demonetisation is already in the prices.
While some sectors such as IT and pharma will not be impacted by demonetisation, oil marketing firms, refiner and power and gas utilities are more likely to do better over the next 12 months, experts said.
"NBFCs, cement, auto and realty are sectors are going to be hit badly and the market has already discounted this in the current prices," Mehraboon Irani, Principal & Head, Private Client Group, Nirmal Bang Securities, said in an interview with ETNow.
"It is an opportunity for longer-term investors to buy stocks," he said.
Based on various brokerage recommendations, here is a list of sectors that market veterans seem to be betting on for the new calendar year.
V Srivatsa, EVP- Equity Fund Manager, UTI MF
Sectors expected to do well: OMCs, refiners, power and gas utilities, IT, pharma, consumption
The energy and utilities sector is likely to take a leadership role, as we see strong growth in earnings across oil marketing firms, refiners, power and gas utilities, and more importantly, they are much less impacted by demonetisation, which bodes well for near-term performance of these sectors.
"We also expect IT and pharma sectors to do well, as their underlying competitiveness remains, notwithstanding the near-term challenges these sectors faced and the attractive valuations with strong cash flows and return ratios even in this downturn," Srivatsa said.
Srivatsa is positive on the consumption sectors, such as auto and cement, which he said could face short-term challenges in terms of near-term demand getting muted and pressure on profitability.
Kamlesh Rao, CEO, Kotak Securities
Sectors likely to do well: banking, auto, infrastructure, power
"We are positive on industries that might get impacted by rate cyclical such as banks and auto, infrastructure-related sectors such as road and construction and defence and power equipment, among others," Rao said.
He said some businesses such as ceramics, tiles and plywood -
which will see re-organisation of the disorganised segment -may also see some upside.
Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and MD, Angel Broking
Sectors likely to do well: Infra, IT & pharma
Two themes are likely to play out in the near term; first is government spending and second is rupee depreciation. "We believe government spending would be positive for the infrastructure sector, which has been a laggard for some time. The increase in public spending will create more business opportunities for the sector," Thakkar said.
"The infrastructure boom led by a new government in the US will also be a positive for improving sentiment in the infrastructure sector. A depreciation of the rupee would be positive for the export sector, especially those where Indian companies have created a niche for themselves such as IT and pharma," he said.